By RICHARD CHEEKS
Before the Cats embarked on the current five game swing that includes stops at Auburn, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas A&M, with a home date against LSU in the middle, I wrote about this team’s split personality. We saw it manifest again in their Waltz across Alabama. Against Auburn they played upbeat, sharp passing, accurate shooting, intimidating defense that resulted in a road win with great ease. Then three days later, the team appeared tense, timid, inaccurate, and their offense and defense abandoned them, especially in the second half. In the second half, the Crimson Tide outscored the Blue Cats 35-22 on just 30 possessions.
The personality disorder is also apparent in a close examination of this team’s pattern of efficiency over the first 18 games. This is the least consistent offense of a Kentucky team since 2000 when I began tracking efficiency variances for offense and defense. However, while this team’s offensive variance is the highest I have observed at 15.2%, the defensive variance is 26.7% when the average variance has been 16.9% prior to this season. This team cannot decide whether they should play like the monsters of the midway or the sisters for the poor.
Make no mistake, Auburn is not near the team that Alabama is, and any objective observer would not have expected a margin of victory and ease of victory that Kentucky enjoyed at Auburn when they took the floor in Tuscaloosa. However, this UK team should have taken care of business against Alabama just the same, and make no mistake, Mississippi will be as much more difficult than Alabama as Alabama was compared to Auburn. Then this formidable sequence concludes at Texas A&M, a team that embarrassed Coach Calipari’s Cats in Rupp Arena 2 weeks ago.
And along came LSU, hot off a 4 point win over those very same Texas A&M Aggies that owned the Cats in Rupp, not the ideal recipe for fixing problems. This Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde act is in jeopardy of playing itself right out of a coveted bye in the SEC Tournament and a bid to the big dance. If it does not get it right soon, it will be too late, if it is not already.
LSU brings a 10-6 record into this game, and the Tigers are coming off a win after losing their first 4 SEC games after posting a 9-2 non-conference record. LSU’s most impressive wins have been by 5 over #98 Seton Hall, and by 4 over #90 Texas A&M, both in Baton Rouge. LSU’s has lost to #35 Marquette, #59 Boise State, #1 Florida, which is no source of embarrassment, but the Tigers may have some difficulty explaining a 5 point loss at #167 Auburn, a 9 point loss at #164 Georgia, and a 9 point loss to #194 South Carolina.
LSU has averaged about 73 possessions per game, producing 72.1 ppg (0.99 ppp) and allowing 68.1 ppg (0.93 ppp) against a schedule that Pomeroy rates as the 241st toughest (0.4431). LSU has turned the ball over on 22.1% of its possessions while forcing turnovers on 23.5% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, LSU has secured an offensive rebounding rate of 37.0% about 4% the 33% NCAA average, and a defensive rebounding rate of 66.6%, slightly below the NCAA average.
In contrast, the Cats have averaged about 70 possessions per game, producing 75.9 ppg (1.08 ppp) and allowing 61.6 ppg (0.83 ppp) against a schedule strength of 0..5463 (112th). The Cats have committed turnovers on 18.5% of its possessions and forced turnovers on 19.8% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, the Cats’ rebounding rates have been 34.5% and 70.0% on the offensive and defensive ends.
Based on this distribution, the analysis tips in favor of the Cats by 27 points, 83-56 in a game played at a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 71 possessions for LSU. Pomeroy figures the Game in Kentucky’s favor by 18 points, 81-63 at a pace of 75 possessions. As discussed previously, this game will depend on which identity shows up in LSU on Tuesday night. If it is the personality that sustained high hopes over the first half of this season, I would expect a Kentucky win by 35 or more. However, if the timid personality shows up for this one, the Cats will not be able to cover the Pomeroy spread.
8 Responses to This time numbers favor Kentucky by 27 points over LSU
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Wow…it’s hard to believe that with some games (and half’s) they’ve had that the numbers would still be that strongly in our favor. Here’s to hoping the Cats can live up to it!
GO BIG BLUE!!!
This is a poor LSU team. Our progress or lack of progress cannot be measured by such a weak team. The Cats need to take care of business and win by 30.
LSU is not a good team. Yet, they did something that this UK team could not do, beat the Aggies on the home court.
gpm, read in some other threads about the inconsistency of this team compared to others, and how the average efficiencies compare to other teams. It is a paradox.
Which year by 27?
Not this year it seems.
There are a lot of “nots” this year
Analysis:
UK scored its 75 points in 68 possessions [1.10 ppp] for the game, and LSU scored its 70 points on 68 possessions [1.03 ppp].
Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 39-26, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 13-11. However, LSU converted its 11 second chance possessions into 14 second chance points while Kentucky converted their 13 second chance possessions to score 14 second chance points. LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.824 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.273 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.897 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.077 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 46.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU was able to convert 29.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
Kentucky shot poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 19-28 [67.9%]. LSU made 12-15 [71.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-56 overall [39.3%] and 5-9 from long range [80.0%]. For LSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 17-43 [39.5%] and from long range, LSU hit 8-20 [40.0%]. The Cats made 27-52 (51.9%) overall, but only 2-11 (18.2%) from outside the arc.
The Cats who committed 16 turnovers, one for every 4.3 possessions. The Cats forced 10 LSU turnovers, one for every 6.8 possessions.
Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 27 point UK win, 83-56 at a pace of 72 possessions for UK and 71 possessions for LSU. The final score was 75 (83) to 70 (56) at a pace of 68 possessions for the Cats and 68 possessions for LSU. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 1.103 ppp (1.139 ppp) and the UK defensive efficiency was 1.029 ppp (0.803 ppp).
Next Game On Schedule: January 29, 2013 when the Cats return to the road for the first of another 2 game road swing to Mississippi.
Professor, you may just want to shut the computer down for the season. The inconsistency of this team may actually cause it to melt down. I can just see it, during a game, spinning in circles, with smoke coming out of its’ vents, screaming “Does not compute!! Does not compute!! Error!! Error!!”, before bursting into flames.
Usually, the inconsistency occurs game to game, and the way teams play a first half of a game is not too different from how they will play the second half. Not so with this group. The inconsistency within single games is astounding.
The computer won’t melt down, but it helps if I get the right input numbers for it though.