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Numbers favor Kentucky by 9 points over Vanderbilt


Fresh Start or Ugly End, Which Will It Be

 The Jekyll and Hyde Cats played the great split personality game again in the last week of the regular season, losing by 10 to a clearly inferior Georgia team and then beating the nations best team, Florida, by 4 at Rupp Arena on senior day. So, the question remains, which personality will make an appearance in Nashville on Friday night when then Jekyll and Hyde Cats face the local Vanderbilt Commodores. Yes, Vanderbilt survived against the Arkansas Hogs on Thursday night to advance into the SEC Quarterfinal round.

Vanderbilt and Kentucky met twice during the SEC regular season. The league opener for both in Nashville, and the rematch at Rupp six weeks later, and 3 weeks ago. In the first game, the Cats were a double digit favorite going into the game, and the Cats opened the game in that manner, opening a 15 point lead, 29-14, by the under 4 media timeout of the first half. However, in those final 4 minutes, the Cats seemed to relax, and Vanderbilt trimmed 4 points off the lead to reduce it to a manageable 11 points at the half. In the second half, the teams traded punches for the first 10 minutes, but at the under 8 media timeout, Vanderbilt had trimmed the Kentucky lead to only 2 points, and they tied the score at the under 4 media timeout. The Cats moved up by 4 points, and after Vanderbilt made 1 of 2 free throws, the officials allowed a Nerlens Noel basket at the end of the shot clock to stand even though replay after replay demonstrated the shot occurred after time had expired. Vandy hit a 3 pointer, stole the inbounds pass, and missed a 3 point attempt at the buzzer for what would have been the Vandy win. The final margin was marked by Nerlens Noel’s controversial score, a 2-point Kentucky win.

In the return match, at Rupp, the Cats entered the game nearly a 17 point favorite. Just as they did in Nashville, the Cats moved on top early in this game, leading by 14 points after only 9:31 of play. But, just as happened in Nashville, the Commodores trimmed that Kentucky lead to a very manageable 8 points by halftime. In the second half, the teams again traded punches for the first 12 minutes, with the Cats leading by 10 points at the under 8 media timeout. However, by the under 4 media timeout, Vanderbilt had cut the Kentucky lead to only 2 points, and the Cats hung on down the stretch for a 4 point home court win.

In Nashville, arguably a tie, 10 points below the line, and at Rupp, 13 points under the line, with Nerlens Noel riding the bench. So, wind the Clock forward to March 15, 2013, back in Nashville, Tennessee, and these teams will meet for the third time this season. Last year’s third meeting of these teams (Both much better than they are now) saw Vanderbilt defy their 0-2 record against the Cats and hand the eventual national champions what would be their second loss of the entire season. The adage is that it is tough to beat the same team three times in one season. Déjà vu.

Vanderbilt enters this game with a 15-16 record, 8-8 in the SEC regular season, and a second round victory over Arkansas in this SEC Tournament. Overall, Vanderbilt’s schedule has been respectable the 69th most difficult in D1 basketball (0..6467 per Pomeroy). VANDERBILT has averaged about 62 possessions per game, producing 60.0 ppg (0.96 ppp) and allowing 60.0 ppg (0.96 ppp). VANDERBILT has turned the ball over on 19.9% of its possessions while forcing turnovers on 18.9% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, VANDERBILT has secured an offensive rebounding rate of 28.4% about 5% below the 33% NCAA average, and a defensive rebounding rate of 70.5%, about 3% better than the NCAA average.

In contrast, the Cats have averaged about 69 possessions per game, producing 73.9 ppg (1.07 ppp) and allowing 64.6 ppg (0.94 ppp) against a schedule strength of 0.6588 (60th). The Cats have committed turnovers on 19.1% of its possessions and forced turnovers on 17.7% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, the Cats’ rebounding rates have been 34.6% and 68.6% on the offensive and defensive ends.

Based on this distribution, the analysis tips in favor of Kentucky by 9 points, 69-60 in a game played at a pace of 66 possessions for the Cats and 65 possessions for VANDERBILT. The likely margin range for this matchup is pick ‘em to Kentucky by 18 points. Based on the first two meetings that saw Vanderbilt out perform this model by 10 and 13 points gives credence to Cat fans who say they have a guarded optimism about this game


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  1. Anonymous

    I think it goes down to the wire…hopefully we win!

    1. larryvaught

      huge game for UK. Loss and could drop out of ncaa even with upsets today. win and win saturday could get uk out of play-in game. lot at stake

  2. Larry Pup

    The CATS will be ready.

    1. Gene

      Larry, if what I just witnessed was a “ready” basketball team then UK was in trouble beginning last November.
      Not a good team.
      Great individuals but as a “team”——–Nothing !!
      My wife had the best question of the evening, that being “Aren’t they supposed to put the ball through that round, orange thingy?”

      1. Larry Pup

        Gene, I can’t argue with you. It has been a frustrating year to say the least. I always try to stay positive as a fan. Vandy has our number in the SEC Tournament it seems. It will be a miracle if UK makes the big dance now. I’m still pulling for them. Just remember that this is a young UK team, and help is on the way, and better days are ahead for UK roundball. I gotta believe that.

  3. TheProfessor


    UK scored its 48 points in 53 possessions [0.91 ppp] for the game, and VANDERBILT scored its 64 points on 51 possessions [1.26 ppp].

    Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 32-30, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 14-6. VANDERBILT converted its 6 second chance possessions into 9 second chance points while Kentucky converted their 14 second chance possessions to score 20 second chance points. VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 1.078 ppp on its 51 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 0.528 ppp on its 53 first chance possessions and 1.429 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 36.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to convert 25.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    Kentucky shot poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 8-16 [50.0%] and missing the front end of several bonus opportunities. VANDERBILT made 10-11 [90.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 18-52 overall [34.6%] and 4-14 from long range [28.6%]. For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a high 15-29 [51.7%] and from long range, VANDERBILT hit 8-17 [47.1%].

    The Cats who committed 7 turnovers, one for every 7.0 possessions. The Cats forced 5 VANDERBILT turnovers, one for every 10.2 possessions.

    Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 7 point Kentucky win, 68-61 at a pace of 66 possessions for UK and 66 possessions for VANDERBILT. The final score was 48 (68) to 64 (61) at a pace of 49 possessions for the Cats and 50 possessions for VANDERBILT. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 0.906 ppp (1.045 ppp) and the UK defensive efficiency was 1.255 ppp (0.924 ppp).

    The Cats season may continue, but if it does it will either be as one of the last teams given an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, or in the NIT. The team returns to Lexington to await the seeding decisions on Sunday evening.

  4. TheProfessor

    Well, it was anything but a fresh beginning, and about as ugly an ending as I have ever seen from any Kentucky team in my memory

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