Numbers favor Auburn by 10 over Cats

Sacha Killeya-Jones (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS, Contributing Writer

Until Saturday night, a UK team, coached by  John  Calipari had never lost three consecutive games, a record that UK fans and coaches have spoken about freely with pride. Well, that talk and pride has ended, and this team has joined the ranks of 14 other UK teams over the last 89 seasons who have experienced a losing streak of 3 games or more.

The concern now shifts from preserving the aforementioned 2 game maximum losing streak, to watching this current 3 game losing streak grow to 4 games, and perhaps even more. Six UK teams over the same 89 years have lost 4 or more consecutive games. For the record, during this period only two teams have lost more than 4 in a row. In Sutton’s last season, the 1989 team lost 5 in a row, and in Pitino’s first season (on probabion), the 1990 team lost 6 in a row.

Tonight, the Cats will face a very good Auburn team in Auburn, Ala. A loss to Auburn will put this team into that rare category of at least 4 losses in a row.

Auburn currently leads the SEC with a 10-2 conference record, and overall Auburn sports a 22-3 record. The three losses have been to #90 Temple by 14 points on a neutral court in the third game of the season. Then after winning 14 consecutive games, the Tigers fell at arch-rival #44 Alabama by 5. Finally, Auburn fell for a third time one week ago at home to #22 Texas A&M by 1 point. Auburn’s most impressive wins have been by 10 at #11 Tennessee and at #31 Missouri by 18.

Auburn’s 22-3, 10-2 record has produced an ANE of 0.235 ppp (#13) by playing a schedule with a strength of 0.059 ppp (#55). The Cats’ 17-8, 6-6 record has produced an ANE of 0.173 ppp (#38) by playing a schedule with a strength of 0.099 ppp (#10). The ANE analysis gives the edge to Auburn by 10 points, 81-71, in a game played at a pace of 77 possessions. Pomeroy has the Auburn favored by 8, 84-76 with a pace of 73 possessions. Vegas opened today with Auburn a 8 1/2 point favorite.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2017-18DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/26_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

https://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Auburn-Prediction-Thread-114990939

1 comment

  1. Analysis:

    UK scored its 66 points on 70 possessions (0.943 ppp) for the game, and AUBURN scored its 76 points on 70 possessions (1.086 ppp).

    Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 36-34, but Auburn controlled the offensive glass 9-7. Kentucky used its 7 second chance possessions to score 12 second chance points, and AUBURN used its 9 second chance possessions to score 6 second chance points. AUBURN had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 0.771 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.714 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 21.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while AUBURN was able to convert 23.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK made 13-20 (65.0%) from the free throw line in this game. AUBURN made 24-28 [85.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-54 overall [46.3%] and 3-14 from long range [21.4%]. For Auburn, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-33 [42.4%] and from long range, AUBURN hit 8-27 [29.6%].

    The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 5.0 possessions. The Cats forced 7 AUBURN turnovers, one for every 10.0 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon against Alabama at Rupp for the 27th game of the season and the 14th SEC game of 2018

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