Numbers project 13-point UK win

Malik Monk (Vicky Graff Photo)


The postseason has arrived, and the Cats will open their defense of the SEC Tournament Championship as the #1 seed on this afternoon.

By virtue of their 2 point win over Tennessee today in the Tournament’s second round, the Cats’ opponent will be Georgia. This same Georgia team all but had the Cats beat at Rupp Arena earlier this season. However, the Cats survived because Malik Monk drained a corner jump shot at the end of regulation, to extend the Cats into an overtime. In a more recent rematch in Athens, the Cats escaped with a thin victory despite trailing for much of the game.

Now these teams square off for a third time, in the quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament.
GEORGIA enters this game with a 19-13; 9-9 SEC regular season record and a winner over Tennessee in today’s second round 8-9 matchup. Georgia has won six of its last eight games, losing only to the Cats by 5 and at #39 Arkansas by 18.

GEORGIA enters this game with an ANE of 0.129 points per possession against strength of schedule of 0.1072 ppp (#19). The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.289 ppp against strength of schedule of 0.0955 ppp (#28).

The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 13 points, 79-66, at apace of 72 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.092 ppp and 0.912 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in Kentucky’s favor by 10 points 80-70 at a pace of 71 possessions. Vegas opened favoring the Cats by 10 points.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

1 comment

  1. Analysis:
    UK scored its 71 points on 72 possessions (0.986 ppp) for the game, and GEORGIA scored its 60 points on 71 possessions (0.845 ppp).
    Kentucky and Georgia each grabbed 42 total rebounds, and Kentucky won on the offensive end 13-11. Kentucky used its 13 second chance possessions to score 15 second chance points, and GEORGIA used its 11 second chance possessions to score 18 second chance points. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.592 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.636 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.778 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.154 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 29.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert 27.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
    UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 20-33 [60.6%]. GEORGIA made 17-26 [65.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 23-60 overall [38.3%] and 5-15 from long range [33.3%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 19-57 [33.3%] and from long range, GEORGIA hit 5-16 [31.3%].
    The Cats committed 10 turnovers, one for every 7.2 possessions. The Cats forced 13 GEORGIA turnovers, one for every 5.5 possessions.
    Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon, March 11, 2017 at 1:00 pm in the semi-final round of the SEC Tournament in Nashville. The Opponent will be the winner of Friday afternoon’s game between the South Carolina and Alabama.

Leave a Reply