Numbers favor Kentucky by 9 points today

De’Aaron Fox (Jeff Houchin Photo)


The Cats fell back into their habit of allowing an opponent to post an early double digit lead before closing the gap by the halftime break, and moving on to a second half victory. Alabama led by 10, 17-7, but the Cats scored 11 straight to take their first lead, and 22-7 to establish a lead the Cats could manage. In the second half, Alabama managed to regain the lead by scoring the first 4 points of the second half, but the Cats quickly regained control, and played from the lead to the end of a very competitive game, winning by 5, 79-74. The Cats advanced to the SEC Tournament’s Championship Game again and will square off against Arkansas today at 1 pm in pursuit of their 30th SEC Tournament Championship.

ARKANSAS enters this game with a 25-8; 12-6 SEC regular season record and a winner over Mississippi and Vanderbilt in the quarterfinal and semi-final rounds of the SEC Tournament. While the Cats are the hottest team in the SEC, riding a 10 game winning streak, Arkansas is nearly as hot, winning 8 of its last 9 games. The Hogs’ only loss since early February was at #9 Florida by 13 on March 1.

ARKANSAS enters this game with an ANE of 0.156 points per possession against strength of schedule of 0.0692 ppp (#61). The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.285 ppp against strength of schedule of 0.0961 ppp (#32).

The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 9 points, 80-71 at apace of 74 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.078 ppp and 0.957 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in Kentucky’s favor by 8 points 86-78 at a pace of 74 possessions. Vegas opened favoring the Cats by 8 1/2 points.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:


  1. Analysis:
    UK scored its 82 points on 68 possessions (1.206 ppp) for the game, and ARKANSAS scored its 65 points on 69 possessions (0.942 ppp).
    Kentucky won the battle of the boards, 40-26, and Kentucky won on the offensive end 12-8. Kentucky used its 12 second chance possessions to score 15 second chance points, and ARKANSAS used its 8 second chance possessions to score 6 second chance points. ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.855 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.750 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.985 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.250 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS was able to convert 22.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
    UK hit well from the free throw line making 22-25 (88.0%). ARKANSAS made 15-20 [75.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 27-56 overall [48.2%] and 6-16 from long range [37.5%]. For ARKANSAS, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 19-37 [51.4%] and from long range, ARKANSAS hit 4-18 [22.2%].
    The Cats committed 15 turnovers, one for every 4.5 possessions. The Cats forced 14 ARKANSAS turnovers, one for every 4.9 possessions.
    Next Game On Schedule: Either Thursday or Friday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at a location, time and opponent to be determined over the next 24 hours.

  2. Thanks for info professor

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