Numbers project 15-point win at Missouri

Vicky Graff Photo

By RICHARD CHEEKS

On Saturday evening, the Cats entered Georgia’s Stegman Arena for what is usually a hard fought basketball battle with the Dawgs. The Cats have won 4 of 6 games in Athens during the Calipari Era, but most of these games have been undecided at the final media timeout of the game. Saturday’s game played out according to this script again.

After 14 SEC games, the Cats and the Gators stand tied, 12-2, with four games remaining on the regular schedule. The Gators hold the 22 point beat down of the Cats in Gainesville to their credit with losses to Vanderbilt and at South Carolina. The Cats add a loss at Tennessee to the Gator beat down. The Gators are scheduled to appear in Rupp Arena Saturday for the game that will determine the 2017 SEC regular season champion. Prior to that conference championship showdown, the Gators host South Carolina and the Cats travel to Missouri.

MISSOURI enters this game with a 7-19; 2-12 record. Missouri opened their season with 5 wins in their first 8 games, but their best win in this stretch of games was a 3 point win over #242 Western Kentucky. The Tigers then lost 13 in a row between December 10 and February 2. Missouri ended their losing streak with a 5-point win over #50 Arkansas at home, and followed up that home win with a 20-point win over #56 Vanderbilt at home. MISSOURI enters this game with an ANE of 0.013 points per possession against a strength of schedule of 0.0513 ppp (#69).

The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.296 ppp against a strength of schedule of 0.0915 ppp (#27). The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 15 points, 81-66 at apace of 75 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.079 ppp and 0.879 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in Kentucky’s favor by 17 points 85-68 at a pace of 74 possessions, and Vegas has opened with the Cats favored by 16 ½.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/28_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Missouri-Prediction-Thread-51367494

1 comment

  1. Analysis:
    UK scored its 72 points on 73 possessions (0.986 ppp) for the game, and MISSOURI scored its 62 points on 73 possessions (0.849 ppp).
    Kentucky won the battle of the boards 44-31, and the Cats won the battle of the offensive glass 10-7. Kentucky used its 10 second chance possessions to score 11 second chance points, and MISSOURI used its 7 second chance possessions to score 5 second chance points. MISSOURI had an offensive efficiency of 0.781 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.714 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.836 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.100 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 29.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSOURI was able to convert 17.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
    UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 19-28 [67.9%]. MISSOURI made 14-23 [60.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-52 overall [46.2%] and 5-18 from long range [27.8%]. For MISSOURI , their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 18-38 [47.4%] and from long range, MISSOURI hit 4-22 [18.2%].
    The Cats committed 17 turnovers, one for every 4.3 possessions. The Cats forced 9 MISSOURI turnovers, one for every 8.1 possessions.
    Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon, February 25, 2017 at 2:00 pm at Rupp against Florida for the SEC Regular Season Championship and the #1 Seed in the SEC Tournament, in the 29th regular season game and 16th SEC of the 2016-17 season.

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