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Numbers favor UK by 6 points over Gators

By RICHARD CHEEKS

Barely three weeks ago, Kentucky traveled to Gainesville where they took it on the chin in an humiliating 22-point loss, 88-66, to a very good Florida basketball team. If the lackluster play that the Cats had fallen into while winning at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, and against Auburn at Rupp were not sufficient to sound the alarm for this team, then perhaps the beating the Gators delivered would get their attention.

If the back-to-back losses at Tennessee and to Kansas at Rupp were not sufficient to sound the alarm for this team, then perhaps the beating the Gators delivered would get their attention.

Since February 4,, the Cats have put together a 5-game winning streak. During this time of winning, the Cats have also been on the mend, playing better basketball over these five games than they had played since beating Arkansas on January 7.

Saturday afternoon, the Gators will come into Rupp Arena for the long awaited rematch, an opportunity for this team to announce to the entire basketball world that they are corrected their course and the Cats are Back in the hunt for championships.

A win on Saturday over the Gators will be huge toward championships. First, a win over the Gators will all but deliver the SEC regular season championship, and the #1 seed for the SEC Tournament championship. Second, a win over the Gators should lift the Cats to the 2 line for NCAA tournament seeding. Third, the Cats will have avenged the most embarrassing loss of the season against a legitimate top 10 opponent and position the Cats for a legitimate run for #9.

The Gators have not been idle in their pursuit of the SEC Championship since then pounded the Cats in Gainesville. Florida enters Rupp on an impressive nine game win streak. The Gators started this winning streak following their back-to-back losses at South Carolina and to Vanderbilt at home. Overall, FLORIDA enters this game with a 23-5; 13-2 record. There is not an embarrassing loss to Florida’s credit this season, falling to #1 Gonzaga by 5 on a neutral court, to #14 Duke by 10 on a neutral court, at #18 Florida State by 5, at #29 South Carolina by 4, and to #51 Vanderbilt by 2.

Without doubt, Florida’s most impressive win this season was its 22-point pounding of the Cats in Gainesville. FLORIDA enters this game with an ANE of 0.295 points per possession against strength of schedule of 0.1051 ppp (#17).

The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.291 ppp against strength of schedule of 0.0894 ppp (#30). The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 6 points, 77-71 at apace of 75 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.031 ppp and 0.950 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in Kentucky’s favor by 3 points 80-77 at a pace of 74 possessions.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/29_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Florida-Prediction-Thread-51419495

1 comment

  1. TheProfessor

    Analysis:
    UK scored its 76 points on 69 possessions (1.101 ppp) for the game, and FLORIDA scored its 62 points on 68 possessions (0.971 ppp).
    Kentucky won the battle of the boards 48-30, and the Cats won the battle of the offensive glass 12-11. Kentucky used its 12 second chance possessions to score 11 second chance points, and FLORIDA used its 11 second chance possessions to score 11 second chance points. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.809 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.942 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.917 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 38.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert 23.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 22-27 [81.5%]. FLORIDA made 4-6 [66.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-53 overall [45.3%] and 6-14 from long range [42.9%]. For FLORIDA , their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 16-41 [39.0%] and from long range, FLORIDA hit 10-30 [33.3%].
    The Cats committed 16 turnovers, one for every 4.3 possessions. The Cats forced 6 FLORIDA turnovers, one for every 11.3 possessions.
    Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday evening, February 28, 2017 at 9:00 pm at Rupp for Senior Night against Vanderbilt in the 30th regular season game and 17th SEC of the 2016-17 season.

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