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Numbers project 19-point Kentucky win over Arkansas

Mychal Mulder (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS

This past Saturday, the SEC teams played a full slate of seven basketball games, bringing the total for the season to 12 games. Of these 12 games, the visiting team has won nine times. One of those rare home wins occurred at Rupp Arena where the Wildcats handed Texas A&M its worst SEC defeat ever, a 42 point pole axing to advance to 12-2 overall and 2-0 in the SEC. Texas A&M having lost to Tennessee in their first game at College Station fell to 0-2 in the SEC.

The Cats’ game against the Aggies was clearly their strongest single game performance of this season with a game ANE of 0.614 points per possession, surpassing the previous best game against Arizona State. Meanwhile, the Arkansas Razorbacks got out of Knoxville on Saturday with a four point win over Tennessee to even their SEC record at 1-1 following their earlier home court loss to Florida.

ARKANSAS enters the game with a 12-2; 1-1 record. The Razorbacks lost at #34 Minnesota in November by 14, and the Razorbacks’ most impressive win has been over #42 Houston by 12. Arkansas enters this game with an ANE of 0.162 points per possession against a strength of schedule of 0.07 ppp (#162). The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.337 ppp against a strength of schedule of 0.0429 ppp (#49).

The ANE analysis indicates a Kentucky win by 19 points, 87-68 at apace of 78 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.117 ppp and 0.873 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in Kentucky’s favor by 16 points,92-76 at a pace of 77 possessions.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/15_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Arkansas-Prediction-Thread-50271919

1 comment

  1. TheProfessor

    Analysis:
    UK scored its 97 points on 71 possessions (1.347 ppp) for the game, and ARKANSAS scored its 71 points on 72 possessions (0.986 ppp).
    Kentucky won the battle of the boards 44-28, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 15-9. Kentucky used its 15 second chance possessions to score 21 second chance points, and ARKANSAS used its 9 second chance possessions to score 13 second chance points. ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.806 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.444 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 1.056 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.400 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 44.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS was able to convert 23.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 28-40 [70.0%]. ARKANSAS made 17-21 [81.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 32-61 overall [53.3%] and 5-19 from long range [26.3%]. For ARKANSAS , their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 21-47 [44.7%] and from long range, ARKANSAS hit 4-16 [25.0%].
    The Cats committed 9 turnovers, one for every 8.0 possessions. The Cats forced 8 ARKANSAS turnovers, one for every 9.0 possessions.
    Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday evening, January 10, 2017 at 7:00 pm at Nashville against Vanderbilt in the sixteenth regular season game and fourth SEC game of the 2016-17 season.

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