Numbers favor Kentucky by 27 points over Hofstra today

Bam Adebayo, Wenyen Gabriel (Vicky Graff Photo)

Bam Adebayo, Wenyen Gabriel (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS

The Cats have rolled out their 2016-17 season with an 8-1 start, and Sunday afternoon’s game against Hofstra in the Barclay Center in Brooklyn, New York will mark the 1/3 mark on this regular season, yet the season is barely one month old and has three full months for the next 21 games prior to the SEC Tournament.

This will be the 10th game in 31 days. Over the next 30 days, the Cats will only play 6 times, and will not enjoy the friendly confines of Rupp Arena again until January 3 when Texas A&M comes calling.

The Cats 10th game of this season will against the Hofsta Pride of the Colonial Athletic Association. Last season, the Pride finished tied for first place in their conference with a record of 24-10; 14-4. In 2015, Hofstra also finished with a winning record, 20-14; 10-8. Hofstra has started the 2016-17 season 6-4, but one of their 6 wins came against a non-D1 opponent, reducing their D1 record to 5-4.

The “best” win in the mix thus far has been at #220 Florida Atlantic by 8 points. The Pride has lost games at #326 Sacred Heart by 4 and at #228 Manhattan by 12.

Hofstra enters this game with an ANE of -0.058 points per possession against a strength of schedule of -0.0371 ppp. The Cats enter this game with an ANE of 0.322 ppp against a strength of schedule of – -0.0062 ppp. The ANE analysis indicates a UK win by 27 points, 91-64 at a pace of 75 possessions. This would produce game efficiencies of 1.225 ppp and 0.839 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game in UK’s favor by 22 points, 93-71 at a pace of 75 possessions.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/10_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Hofstra-Prediction-Thread-49642536

1 comment

  1. Analysis:
    UK scored its 96 points on 77 possessions (1.247 ppp) for the game, and HOFSTRA scored its 73 points on 78 possessions (0.936 ppp).
    Hofstra won the battle of the boards 45-41, and Hofstra won the battle of the offensive glass 19-12. Kentucky used its 12 second chance possessions to score 7 second chance points, and HOFSTRA used its 19 second chance possessions to score 24 second chance points. HOFSTRA had an offensive efficiency of 0.628 ppp on its 78 first chance possessions and 1.263 ppp for its 19 econd chance possessions. UK had 1.156 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 0.583 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 31.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while HOFSTRA was able to convert 39.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
    UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 14-21 [66.7%]. HOFSTRA made 23-37 [62.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 37-72 overall [51.4%] and 8-23 from long range [34.8%]. For HOFSTRA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 16-43 [37.2%] and from long range, HOFSTRA hit 6-22 [27.3%].
    The Cats committed 7 turnovers, one for every 11.0 possessions. The Cats forced 14 HOFSTRA turnovers, one for every 5.6 possessions.
    Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon at LasVegas, Nevada against North Carolina in the eleventh regular season game of the 2016-17 season.

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