Numbers favor UK by 28 over UT-Martin

Isaac Humphries (Vicky Graff Photo)

Isaac Humphries (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS

On Wednesday afternoon, the Cats served a pre-Thanksgiving appetizer to the Big Blue Nation with a 31-point win over the Cleveland State Vikings at Rupp Arena. On Friday, the Cats will be serving a post-Thanksgiving dessert, the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks. This will be the Cats’ sixth game, five at Rupp Arena, over the first 2 weeks of the 2016-17 regular season, and this game marks the end of the introduction to this team.

On Monday, when the Cats again leave the friendly confines of Rupp Arena to face #78 Arizona State in the Bahamas, the Cats will move into the second phase of this season, 5 non-conference encounters that includes in addition to #78Arizona State, #24 UCLA, #73 Valparaiso, #2 North Carolina, and #7 Louisville. Over the ensuing 4 weeks, the Cats will learn whether they have learned the early season lessons are ready for a steady prime time diet.

But, before the team officially can move into this next phase with elevated opponent difficulty, it must take care of the post-Thanksgiving dessert.

Tennessee Martin has already played six games, with a 5-1 record. UTM’s only loass occurred in their opening game at #79 Mississippi by 3 points. Tennessee Martin has beaten #224 Cleveland State by 11 points, and at #235 Canisius by 3 points and at #203 Duquesne by 3 points. In addition, UTM has posted an 8-point win over #l345 UT Rio Grande Valley and against non-D1 opponent Cumberland by 31 points. They enter this game as the #230 team in the Pomeroy ratings with an ANE of -0.055 ppp with strength of schedule of -0.0360 ppp. The Cats enter this game at #4 with an ANE of 0.305 ppp with strength of schedule of -0.0405 ppp. The Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) analysis for this match up indicates a game played at a pace of 77 possessions for the Cats and 77 possessions for the Skyhawks, with the Cats winning by 28 points, 90-62 with game efficiencies of 1.169 ppp and 0.805 ppp. Pomeroy sees this game with UK having a 29-point advantage, 94-65 played at a pace of 77 possessions.

Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/06_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Tennessee-Martin-Prediction-Thread-49208893

1 comment

  1. Analysis:

    UK scored its 111 points (the most scored in a game during the Calipari Era) in a total of 80 possessions (1.388 ppp) for the game, and Tennessee Martin scored its 76 points on a total of 80 possessions 0.950 ppp).

    Kentucky won the battle of the boards 48-26, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 19-11. Kentucky used its 19 second chance possessions to score 20 second chance points, and Tennessee Martin used its 11 second chance possessions to score 6 second chance points. Tennessee Martin had an offensive efficiency of 0.875 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 0.546 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 1.138 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 1.053 ppp on its 19 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 55.9%of its misses as offensive rebounds while Tennessee Martin was able to convert 27.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 22-29 [75.9%]. Tennessee Martin made 13-20 [65.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 41-74 overall [55.4%] and 7-22 from long range [31.8%]. For Tennessee Martin, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 18-39 [46.2%] and from long range, Tennessee Martin hit 9-27 [33.3%].

    The Cats committed 12 turnovers, one for every 6.7 possessions. The Cats forced 17 Tennessee Martin turnovers, one for every 4.7 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Monday evening in the Bahamas where the Cats will take on Arizona State in the seventh regular season game of the 2016-17 season.

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