Numbers favor Cats by 2 over Spartans

Vicky Graff Photo

Vicky Graff Photo

By RICHARD CHEEKS

The Cats got off to a very slow start against Canisius on Sunday night, trailing by 7 points at the first media timeout, and trailing most of the first half before a late surge in the last 2 minutes put the Cats on top by 9 points at the half. In the second half, the Cats expanded their lead to 29 points before the team seemed to sputter to the finish line, winning by 24 at the end.

Rebounding was a major issue for the Cats for their second consecutive game of this young season. Through two games, the Cats have been outrebounded 72-67 overall, and 28-26 on the offensive boards. Prior Calipari teams have been beasts on the boards, earning a living on offensive rebounds that produce a bevy of second chance points. Of course, the rebounding woes are both on the offensive and defensive ends of the court.

Three point shooting has also been problematic in the early going. Mychal Mulder has made three of his five attempts from beyond the arc in his 10 minutes of floor time. The rest of this team has been 6-29 (20.7%). While the Cats’ 3 point shooting has been off, the Cats’ defense against shooting by its opponents has been less effective than prior Calipari teams too. In these first two games, the opponents have made 55% of their shots inside the arc. The Cats’ interior defense has been lacking as compared to previous teams.

Now it is time to take on Michigan State in the Champions Classic, this year played at Madison Square Garden in New York City. This is the sixth game in this series involving Duke, Kansas, and Michigan State, and concludes the second three game cycle. In the first cycle, the Cats beat Kansas and lost to Duke and Michigan State. In the second cycle, the Cats have beaten Kansas and Duke, and could get the sweep on Tuesday with a win over Michigan State.

Tom Izzo teams battle on the boards as strongly as any team in D1 basketball, and he knows how to exploit the Cats’ soft interior defense. In order to beat Michigan State on Tuesday, these Cats will have to shore up these areas of weakness.

Michigan State opened the season on Friday against #10 Arizona, losing a close one by 2 points, 65-63. The Spartans also played two exhibitions games prior to their Arizona loss. They took care of business against Northwood University by 24, 93-69, and they beat Saginaw Valley State by 10, 87-77. They enter this game as the #15 team in the Pomeroy ratings with an ANE of 0.192 ppp. The Cats enter this game at #4 with an ANE of 0.256 ppp. The Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) analysis for this match up indicates a game played at a pace of 70 possessions, with the Cats winning by 2 points, 72-70. Pomeroy sees this game with UK having a 4-point advantage, 75-71 played at a pace of 70 possessions.

See how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board at:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/03_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Michigan-State-Prediction-Thread-48970248

 

1 comment

  1. Analysis:

    UK scored its 69 points in a total of 73 possessions (0.945 ppp) for the game, and Michigan State scored its 48 points on a total of 73 possessions 0.657 ppp).

    Kentucky and Michigan State fought on even terms on the Boards, 42-42, and Michigan State won the battle of the offensive glass 12-11. Kentucky used its 11 second chance possessions to score 13 second chance points, and Michigan State used its 12 second chance possessions to score 8 second chance points. Michigan State had an offensive efficiency of 0.548 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.767 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.182 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 26.8%of its misses as offensive rebounds while Michigan State was able to convert 27.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 16-20 [80.0%]. Michigan State made 3-9 [33.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 23-61 overall [37.7%] and 7-22 from long range [31.8%]. For Michigan State, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 15-35 [42.9%] and from long range, Michigan State hit 5-25 [20.0%].

    The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 5.2 possessions. The Cats forced 20 Michigan State turnovers, one for every 3.6 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Sunday night in Rupp Arena where the Cats will take on Duquense in the fourth regular season game of the 2016-17 season.

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