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Guest post: Numbers favor Kentucky by 31 over Canisius tonight

Mychal Mulder had two 3-pointers Friday. (Vicky Graff Photo)

Mychal Mulder had two 3-pointers Friday. (Vicky Graff Photo)

By RICHARD CHEEKS

In their first encounter against a D1 basketball team, the Big Blue Nation learned a thing or two about this team that Coach Calipari probably already knew. First, this team is not very strong on the boards and second Edrice (BAM) Adebayo is both foul prone and a poor free throw shooter.

The personal issues with BAM is not too surprising, but the lack of strength on the Boards is a major concern with Tom Izzo’s Spartans waiting for the Cats on Tuesday night. Against Stephen F. Austin, the Cats only rebounding 1/3 of its missed shots, which is very low for a Calipari coached team, and the Cats allowed Stephen F. Austin to rebound nearly ½ of there misses, which is also the antithesis of a Coach Calipari team.

Nevertheless, the Cats led nearly the entire game (trailing one time at 2-3 in the first minute of play), led by 28 points inside the last 5 minutes of the game, and finished with a 23 point win. So, the report from game 1 is not all gloom and doom, and Coach Calipari clearly has some talent on this team to mold and develop.

Next up for the Cats will be Canisius tonight at Rupp Arena. Last season, Canisius finished 14-19 after three consecutive seasons with winning records. The Golden Griffins finished the 2015-16 ranked #237 by Pomeroy, and Pomeroy opens the 2016-17 season with Canisius at the #225 spot.

Canisius has played one exhibition game, winning 99-95 in a game played at a pace of 78 possessions. The Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) analysis for this matchup, based on pre-season estimates derived from each team’s recent history, indicates a game played at a pace of 71 possessions, with the Cats winning by 31 points, 90-59. Pomeroy sees this game with UK having a 25 point advantage, 86-61 played at a pace of 69 possessions.

See how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board at:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2016-17DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/02_Predictions.png

You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/Canisius-Prediction-Thread-48904997

1 comment

  1. TheProfessor

    Analysis:

    UK scored its 93 points in a total of 75 possessions (1.240 ppp) for the game, and Canisius scored its 69 points on a total of 75 possessions 0.920 ppp).

    Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 39-36, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 15-14. Kentucky used its 15 second chance possessions to score 13 second chance points, and Canisius used its 14 second chance possessions to score 14 second chance points. Canisius had an offensive efficiency of 0.733 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had 1.067 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.868 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 40.5%of its misses as offensive rebounds while Canisius was able to convert 36.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 27-39 [69.2%]. Canisius made 13-20 [65.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-61 overall [50.8%] and 4-16 from long range [25.0%]. For Canisius, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 22-41 [53.7%] and from long range, Canisius hit 4-21 [19.0%].

    The Cats committed 10 turnovers, one for every 7.5 possessions. The Cats forced 18 Canisius turnovers, one for every 4.2 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night in MSG where the Cats will take on Michigan State in the third regular season game of the 2016-17 season.

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