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Guest post: Numbers favor Cats over Tide by 11

By RICHARD CHEEKS

The regular season has come and gone; the Cats finished tied for the SEC regular season championship with Texas A&M, and #8 in the final regular season Pomeroy ratings. On Friday night, the Cats will start their post season in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament against the Alabama Crimson Tide, an 8 point winner over Mississippi in the Tournament’s second round on Thursday evening.

The Cats and the Tide played twice this season, with the Cats winning both games, by 16 in Tuscaloosa and by 25 at Rupp Arena.

ALABAMA has played its 31 games at an average tempo of about 67 possessions per game, scoring 67.1 ppg (0.998 ppp) and allowing an average 67.3 ppg (0.999 ppp). ALABAMA has turned the ball over on 19.7% of its possessions while forcing turnovers on 18.3% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, ALABAMA has secured an offensive rebounding rate of 28.3%, and a defensive rebounding rate of 65.5%. The ALABAMA schedule has a strength of schedule of 0.6969 (#24).

In contrast, the Cats have averaged about 70 possessions per game, producing 79.0 ppg (1.136 ppp) and allowing 67.9ppg (0.969 ppp). The Cats have committed turnovers on 16.3% of its possessions and forced turnovers on 17.6% of opponent possessions. On the Boards, the Cats’ rebounding rates have been 37.8% and 69.0% on the offensive and defensive ends. The Cats have a strength of schedule of 0.6839 (#35).

Based on this distribution, the analysis tips in favor of the Cats with a theoretical margin of 11 points, 76-65 in a game played at a pace of 68 possessions for the Cats and 69 possessions for ALABAMA. Pomeroy figures the Game in Kentucky’s favor by 8 points, 72-64 at a pace of 64 possessions.

See how other Big Blue Fans see this game’s likely outcome by clicking the following link.

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2015-16DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/32_PREDICTIONS.png

You can enter your prediction at any time prior to tip off by visiting the 247 Sports prediction thread for this game at:

http://kentucky.247sports.com/Board/296/Contents/SEC-Tournament-Quarterfinal-Alabama-Pred-Thread-44161050

1 comment

  1. TheProfessor

    Analysis:

    UK scored its 85 points on 58 possessions for the game, and ALABAMA scored its 59 points on 58 possessions.

    The Cats controlled the Boards, 31-27, but Alabama won the battle on the offensive glass 12-11. Kentucky used its 11 second chance possessions to score 17 second chance points, and ALABAMA used its 12 second chance possessions to score 13 second chance points. ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0.793 ppp on its 58 first chance possessions and 1.083 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 1.172 ppp on its 58 first chance possessions and 1.546 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 42.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA was able to convert 37.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

    UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 12-16 [75.0%]. ALABAMA made 12-19 [63.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-55 overall [54.5%] and 13-22 from long range [59.1%]. For ALABAMA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a 10-22 [45.5%] and from long range, ALABAMA hit 9-26 [34.6%].

    The Cats committed 7 turnovers, one for every 8.3 possessions. The Cats forced 13 ALABAMA turnovers, one for every 4.5 possessions.

    Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon in the SEC Tournament’s Semifinal Round against an opponent to be determined from the winner of the Quarterfinal game between Georgia and South Carolina.

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