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Numbers suggest 21-10 might be most likely finish for UK this year

By RICHARD CHEEKS

Prior to Saturday, there had been 2,717 D1 college basketball games this season.  The theoretical number of upsets, given the assortment of predicted margins and win probabilities provided by Ken Pomeroy was 655 and the actual number of upsets had been 630 over the course of 63 days of basketball action.

Since Saturday, on Monday and Sunday, there have been 44 games with a theoretical number of upsets equal to 12 and an actual number of upsets equal to 13.

Over the course of these 65 days of basketball action, there have been 18 days in which the number of upsets exceeded the theoretical number, 28 days in which the number of upsets were fewer than the theoretical, and 17 days with them equal.  On the days that actual upsets exceeded the theoretical number, the larger variance had been 7 games and the largest variation in the other direction had been -8 games.

On Saturday, there were 142 D1 college basketball games.  The theoretical number of upsets for that array of games was 37.  There were 65 upsets on Saturday.  Through games played last night, the total number of upsets this season are 708 in a total of 2,903 games having a theoretical upset rate of 704 games.

The upset rate this season, sorted by win probability for the favorite are:

50-59.9%             45.4%                   244 out of 537 games

60-69.9%             36.0%                   200 out of 556 games

70-79.9%             24.0%                   144 out of 600 games

80-89.9%             16.6%                   102 out of 616 games

90-99.9%               2.9%                     18 out of 626 games

<50%                    6 UK games remaining per Pomeroy (43%, 15%, 40%, 21%, 34%, 32%)

50-59.5%             1 UK game remaining per Pomeroy

60-69.9%             2 UK games remaining per Pomeroy

70-79.9%             2 UK games remaining per Pomeroy

80-89.9%             2 UK games remaining per Pomeroy

90-99.9%             1 UK game remaining per Pomeroy

To finish 21-10, this team must win all of the games in which it will be favored.  To improve upon that outcome, this team must get upset wins at one or more of the 6 games it will not be favored.  The most likely upset opportunity will be on Thursday night at Arkansas with a 43% win probability.  The least likely upset will be at Kansas (15%).

The probabilities suggest 2 upsets could be in the mix for this team.  The probabilities also suggest 2 upset losses along the trail of these last 14 games.

Of course, time will tell, but right now it looks like 21-10 regular season for this team is the most likely outcome.

3 comments

  1. Larry Pup

    Is this the same Professor that said when the season started there were not 10 teams in the USA capable of beating this UK team. I sure hope the analysis is wrong. We’ll see. I think Cal will have them battle ready down the stretch.

  2. TheProfessor

    Yes it is, but it is clear hat you have chosen to ignore the warnings about the direction this team has been heading since early in the season. You are a classic cherry picker.

    1. Larry Pup

      Whatever!!! I did read your warnings. You have not been right all year with your analysis Professor. Why is that? I will tell you why. These kids are not robots you wind up and turn loose and everything comes out just like the numbers project. I never saw anybody jump off the bandwagon as fast as you did. That has to be some sort of record on VV’s.

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